Canada’s Thanksgiving week is expected to bring a cycle of Express Entry selections. A PNP selection with a cutoff above 700 points is predicted, a CEC selection with 2,000 invitations and a cutoff around 517 points, as well as a possible category-based selection by education or French language proficiency. The selection schedule may shift due to the holiday.
Selection for PNP nominees
The selection week traditionally begins with a PNP-specific selection. At this stage, a fixed number of invitations are issued, and the cutoff typically falls above 700 points. However, for nominees of PNP programs this does not matter: those who received provincial nomination automatically receive 600 additional points to their CRS score and are virtually guaranteed to receive an invitation.
Expected CEC selection
The Canadian Experience Class (CEC) selection is the main event of the selection week. In the last round, 2,000 invitations were issued with a cutoff of 518 points, which is one point lower than the previous selection (which was 519). The upcoming week is expected to continue this trend: 2,000 invitations are forecast to be issued with another one to two points decrease to 517 points.
However, the final result may differ depending on the immigration service strategy. If IRCC issues more invitations—say, 3,000 or 3,500—then the cutoff could drop to 515–516 points. If the number of invitations decreases to 1,000, the cutoff will rise to approximately 520 points.
Category-based selections
In addition to the main selections, almost every week includes a category-based selection by some criterion. Last time it was a selection by occupation. The upcoming week could go either way: a selection by education or a selection by French language proficiency. The education selection was more than a year ago, so its probability is high. On the other hand, French selections have been suspended since August, and IRCC may resume this series in October.
Impact of the holiday on the schedule
This week includes Thanksgiving—a public holiday in Canada. This could affect the invitation distribution schedule. Selections may not begin on Monday, but on Tuesday or later. It is possible that several selections (PNP and CEC) will occur on the same day.
Context: how many selections remain for the year
By the end of 2026, approximately six selection weeks remain. This makes each week critically important for candidates in the pool. The more ITAs issued in October and beyond, the more accessible the cutoff will be for the remaining candidates. If IRCC is more conservative with the number of invitations, the scores will remain high.
How to prepare for the selection
Candidates in the pool are advised to ensure they have achieved the maximum possible CRS score. Even a small improvement to the profile—a language test result, additional education, or provincial nomination—could be decisive at the moment invitations are issued. Given that only a few selections remain until the end of the year, you cannot rely on unlimited opportunities to increase your score.
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