In the final quarter of 2026, IRCC may reduce the number of invitations from 2000 to 1500 in each Express Entry draw, as the department approaches its annual quota. Cut-off scores are likely to remain above 510 points, and candidates should improve their scores rather than waiting for passing marks to fall.
How IRCC operates at year-end
Throughout 2026, IRCC has conducted draws in the federal Express Entry category, draws by language, category and PNP program. In most periods, cut-off scores remained above 510 points, often rising above 515.
By year-end, the department typically limits the number of invitations. This happens because IRCC approaches its annual quota as set out in the 2026 immigration plan. To avoid exceeding this quota, the department reduces the number of invitations in each draw.
Forecast for federal draws
Currently, IRCC issues 2000 invitations in each Express Entry draw. In the final quarter, this number may drop to 1500. However, this is an assumption based on data from the previous two years — IRCC is known to make unexpected changes, and the department may continue to issue 2000 invitations or even increase this number.
Candidates should not wait for cut-off scores to fall. It is better to improve your score now, for example by retaking a language exam for a higher result, than to hope for lower requirements. Anyone applying for an invitation in the federal category should try to score as many points as possible to fall within the range that could be invited in the next draw.
Draws by occupation and language
In the fourth quarter, draws for healthcare workers and trade specialists are likely. STEM draws are unlikely, as there have been none for a long time. Education draws are possible.
French-language draws, based on the trend, will be conducted regularly. If a candidate has CLB7 level French, their chances of an invitation are good. PNP program draws will continue — with a provincial nomination at 600 points, you need not worry about cut-off scores.
Forecast for the next draw
The next federal category draw is expected to issue 2000 invitations with a cut-off of approximately 517–518 points. If the number of invitations is reduced to 1500, the cut-off could rise to 520–521 points. If IRCC issues more than 2000 invitations, the cut-off could fall to 515–516 points.
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