The aggregate debt of Polish households to banks has reached a record 800 billion zloty, while the number of Polish borrowers themselves is sharply declining due to a demographic crisis. The system is saved from collapse by the influx of foreigners — mainly Ukrainians who take out loans and mortgages and have gradually become a key pillar of Poland’s banking sector.

Record Debt and Declining Number of Borrowers

According to Poland’s Interia Biznes publication, the aggregate debt of Polish families to banks currently stands at 800 billion zloty — an absolute record in the entire history of observations. Meanwhile, the number of borrowers in Poland has begun to decline sharply.

This means that Poles who already have loans face greater financial burden: to service old debts, they are forced to refinance and take on new obligations. Housing and mortgage loans are currently held by 3.6 million Poles, ordinary consumer loans by 4.7 million people, while credit limits on bank cards and accounts lead in number of users — used by 5.5 million people.

For a bank, a mortgage loan is the most stable product: issued once, it generates interest income for years. Consumer loans and credit limits do not offer such stability.

Who Saved the System from Collapse

After a prolonged decline, the total number of bank customers in Poland has stabilized. This stabilization is partly due to the influx of foreigners into the credit market — mainly Ukrainians who have legalized their status in Poland, obtained documents, and begun using banking services.

Foreigners taking out loans in Poland today are 80–90% Ukrainians and partially Belarusians. Among foreign bank clients, 34% are young people under 25 years old, and another third are people aged 25 to 35. Together, this comprises almost 70% of all foreign customers of Polish banks — young, solvent, with official employment.

For comparison: the average age of a native Polish borrower taking out a mortgage is 36 years and older. Poland’s population is aging rapidly, young people in the country take out loans less frequently, so banks stay afloat largely due to young foreign customers.

82% of the Portfolio Is Housing, Not Consumer Loans

The total value of loans that Polish banks issued to foreigners has more than doubled since the end of 2022 — from 15 billion to 34 billion zloty. Bank financing in Poland is now used by 364,000 foreigners.

Key detail: 82% of this portfolio is residential mortgage loans, not small consumer loans for appliances or cars that can be closed in a few months. A person taking out a mortgage in Warsaw or Krakow for 20–30 years plans to live, work, and pay taxes there for decades to come. According to the cited data, Polish banks have issued 25 billion zloty in mortgage loans to Ukrainians.

Risks for the Banking System

Since there is no influx of new borrowers among Poles themselves, banks have begun working more actively with their existing customer base: pushing new cards, increasing credit limits, issuing larger amounts. Some people take out new loans solely to repay old ones.

The only thing currently holding the system from collapse is the influx of foreigners, the absolute majority of whom are Ukrainians. If, due to rising xenophobia, street attacks, and constant talk of deportations, a portion of Ukrainian borrowers decide to leave Poland for other countries, the banking system risks facing problems that will be difficult to overcome.