According to an expert forecast, the high unemployment area category will most likely remain current through the end of fiscal year 2027, while a cutoff date for the rural category may appear no earlier than April 2027 — and, more likely, only by summer.
In short
- No final action dates are expected for the EB-5 reserved categories (rural, high unemployment area) in fiscal year 2026.
- A final action date for the rural category is expected in fiscal year 2027, likely not before summer.
- The Form I-526 denial rate reached 24% in the most recent quarter — driven by source-of-funds problems and project denials under Form I-956F.
- The grandfathering deadline expires September 30: after that, filing fees and the minimum investment amount both rise.
- In 2026, India overtook China in the number of I-526 filings for the first time, though China still leads in cumulative totals.
Forecast for the Reserved Categories in FY2026 and FY2027
In fiscal year 2026, final action dates are unlikely to appear for any of the EB-5 reserved categories, according to the forecast. That projection rests on the volume of petitions already approved and the pace at which they’re being processed: demand hasn’t yet reached the point where it would exhaust the visa numbers set aside for these categories.
For the rural category, a final action date is expected to appear in fiscal year 2027 — possibly as early as April, but more likely not before summer. The estimate follows the same logic: the program has existed since March 2022, and by the second half of FY2027 the accumulated volume of approved petitions should be enough to use up the visa numbers available specifically for this category.
High unemployment area is a different story. Petitions in this category are moving through processing more slowly, and the pool of approved applicants isn’t yet large enough to require a final action date. High unemployment area is expected to remain current through the end of fiscal year 2027 — but that estimate isn’t guaranteed: dates in the Visa Bulletin can shift suddenly, without advance notice.
that estimate isn’t guaranteed: dates in the Visa Bulletin can shift suddenly, without advance notice
In fiscal year 2026, no final action dates are expected for the EB-5 reserved categories. Rural may see a date appear in 2027, likely by summer; high unemployment area will most likely stay current through the end of 2027.
Why Cutoff Dates Appear Suddenly: The China Precedent of 2015
A similar situation has already played out — with the original EB-5 program, the predecessor to today’s CREA, and with China. A final action date for the China category was effectively introduced in May 2015, even though warnings about it had circulated for months, if not a full year, beforehand.
The cause wasn’t the law itself but the pace of petition processing. Demand from Chinese applicants had already far outstripped the available visa numbers, but the government held off on speeding up approvals for a long time. When the volume of approved petitions jumped sharply in the second half of 2014, visa number usage surged right along with it — and by 2015 a cutoff date had to be introduced.
The mechanism for the reserved categories is the same: the CREA program has been running since March 2022, and as soon as the accumulated volume of approved petitions starts drawing down the available numbers, a final action date will appear. The only difference is that no one can say in advance whether that happens in a month or a year — only that it’s a matter of time, not a matter of probability.
The final action date for the China category was introduced suddenly in May 2015, despite advance warnings. The same mechanism applies to the EB-5 reserved categories — it’s a question of “when,” not “if.”
Chart A vs. Chart B: The Difference and Why It Matters for the Reserved Categories
The Visa Bulletin publishes two charts of dates: Chart A and Chart B. Chart A determines when a final green card petition can be filed, while Chart B determines when an applicant can file based on a visa number that is expected to become available “soon.” USCIS permits the use of Chart B for status adjustment filings under only one condition: if the agency’s calculations show that a visa number can actually be allocated before the end of September — the end of the fiscal year. As soon as USCIS, in consultation with the Department of State, sees that the already-pending applications and remaining numbers are enough to exhaust the quota by that deadline, use of Chart B for new filings stops.
As for whether Chart B can lock in an applicant’s child’s age, the answer is no: USCIS fixes a child’s age only through Chart A, and only if the date listed there is current at that moment. Chart B doesn’t work for that purpose.
The current absence of Chart B dates for the reserved categories is a good sign right now: a Chart B date typically appears before a Chart A date does. But that’s no guarantee for the future: the Department of State could introduce Chart B dates suddenly, as early as November, if it decides to — with no reliance on the fact that this hasn’t happened before.
the Department of State could introduce Chart B dates suddenly, as early as November, if it decides to
EB-5 Demand: How Many Petitions Are Being Filed, and How the China–India Balance Is Shifting
Over the past year or two, roughly 1,500–2,000 Form I-526E petitions have been filed per quarter. The figures come from public USCIS statistics, which IIUSA regularly compiles into a single chart.
The fourth quarter is expected to break from that pattern: ahead of the September 30 grandfathering deadline, applicants rushed to file en masse, and the expected filing count for the quarter is above 2,500. By one estimate, EB-5 has attracted more than $4 billion this year.
A separate chart tracks I-526 filings by applicant country of birth and filing date. Historically, China consistently outpaced India in the number of filings, but that trend began to shift in 2026 — for the first time, India overtook China in the number of petitions filed, even though China still holds a clear lead in cumulative totals.
The difference in processing quality shows up in the approval numbers. Of 9,189 I-526 petitions filed for India, roughly 3,300 have been approved; of 5,266 petitions filed for China, more than 2,170 have been approved. Both figures point to the same thing: the IPO office is continuing to adjudicate cases rather than letting them sit untouched — the real bottleneck shows up at the next stage, when approved petitioners move to obtain conditional green card status.
Separately, demand in the rural and high unemployment area categories from the “rest of world” applicant pool has consistently outpaced demand from China and India combined.
I-526 Approvals: India vs. China
Of the I-526 petitions filed, India has more approvals than China in absolute numbers.
- India: petitions filed9189
- India: approved~3300
- China: petitions filed5266
- China: approved>2170
I-526 Petitions: India vs. China
| Metric | India | China |
|---|---|---|
| I-526 petitions filed | 9189 | 5266 |
| Approved | ~3300 | more than 2170 |
| 2026 filing trend | overtook China in filings for the first time | still leads in cumulative total |
Figures are based on public USCIS statistics.
Delays and Rising Denial Rates on Form I-526
By one estimate, the Form I-526 denial rate in the most recent quarter reached 24% — noticeably higher than in prior periods. There are two main drivers: problems with the investor’s source of funds, or a denial of the project itself under Form I-956F. USCIS continues to scrutinize the origin of an applicant’s money closely, and that review is most often where cases stall.
Even an I-526 approval doesn’t guarantee the case will move quickly from there: the next stage — obtaining conditional green card status — carries its own delays. Meanwhile, USCIS is holding a portion of petitions without a decision for 4–5 years, only to issue a denial anyway once it finally acts.
USCIS is holding a portion of petitions without a decision for 4–5 years, only to issue a denial anyway once it finally acts
A separate problem is the backlog in the “rest of world” queue for older, pre-RIIA petitions. Filings in that category effectively stopped after 2019, with most of the volume dating to fiscal years 2017–2019. Even so, USCIS is only now, years later, getting around to working through that archive — while approval rates on both direct I-526 and I-526E filings are also declining. At the same time, USCIS is building a new backlog of its own — post-RIIA Form I-526E petitions — and that volume keeps growing quarter over quarter.
Rising Denial Rate on Form I-526
The I-526 denial rate climbed to 24% in the most recent quarter — above prior-period levels.
- Denial rate, most recent quarter24%
The I-526 denial rate reached 24% in the most recent quarter — noticeably higher than prior periods. The main causes: source-of-funds issues and project denials under Form I-956F.
Why Experts Are Asking Congress to Extend EB-5
The case for an extension is straightforward: the RIA (RIA Integrity Act) reform has worked — it has proven itself in practice, which gives Congress a reason not to let the program lapse but to lock it in for the future. That’s the basis for the call to extend EB-5 for another 5 years — or better yet, to make the program permanent, removing the need for periodic reauthorization.
What Investors Should Do Now: The Grandfathering Deadline and Concurrent Filing
Anyone considering EB-5 should act without delay and make decisions now rather than putting them off. Roughly two months remain to prepare immigration and financial documentation — that’s the window considered sufficient to file before the program’s conditions change.
That refers to the grandfathering deadline: once it passes, both filing fees and the minimum investment amount will rise. Some applicants knowingly won’t make that deadline but are filing anyway — betting that Congress will extend grandfathering again, as it has done before, and wanting to secure a place in line ahead of time.
One reason to move quickly is concurrent filing: available to investors already in the U.S., it allows them to obtain work authorization (an EAD) and expedited status processing in parallel. That advantage, together with a spot in the queue, is exactly what applicants are trying to lock in as early as possible.
In practice, even applicants who understand they’ll face a long wait are making this decision: in one case reviewed, a married couple in Seattle held EB-2 priority dates from 2021 and 2023, making a green card through that category unrealistic for the foreseeable future. In that situation, EB-5 looks like the more realistic path to a green card — provided the applicant has the funds for the required investment amount.
About two months remain to prepare documents before the grandfathering deadline closes. After that, filing fees and the minimum investment amount both rise, while concurrent filing gives applicants already in the U.S. an EAD and expedited status processing.
Frequently asked questions
What should an investor do if their petition in the outdated rest-of-world category has been stuck for years?
In practice, many of these older, pre-RIIA rest-of-world petitions were filed mostly in fiscal years 2017–2019, and filings in that category effectively stopped after 2019. USCIS is only now, years later, getting around to working through that archive, so a long absence of a decision on such a petition isn’t an anomaly — it reflects the general backlog in that queue.
Does it make sense to switch from EB-2 to EB-5 if the EB-2 queue is already very long?
In practice, some applicants do this: in one case reviewed, a married couple held EB-2 priority dates from 2021 and 2023, making a green card through that category unrealistic for the foreseeable future. In that situation, EB-5 looks like the more realistic path to a green card — but only if the applicant has the funds for the required investment amount.
Can Chart B be used to lock in an applicant’s child’s age so they don’t age out of CSPA protection?
No: USCIS fixes a child’s age only through Chart A, and only if the date listed there is current at that moment. Chart B doesn’t work for that purpose, even if it already allows filing for a status adjustment.
What is concurrent filing, and who can use it with an EB-5 petition?
Concurrent filing lets investors already in the U.S. file for status adjustment at the same time as their petition. It allows them to obtain work authorization (an EAD) and expedited status processing in parallel, which is why applicants try to secure this advantage, along with a place in the queue, as early as possible.
Why do some applicants file after the grandfathering deadline has already passed, knowing the terms have gotten worse?
These applicants are betting that Congress will extend grandfathering again, as it has done before, and want to secure a place in the queue ahead of time — before even more filings pile up under the new, higher fees and minimum investment amount.
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