Why the EB-2 and EB-3 Visa Bulletin for India Moves So Slowly: A Look at the USCIS Data

The EB-2 and EB-3 queues for India move slowly because both categories combined receive only about 4,000 visas a year while tens of thousands of applicants are waiting for a visa number, according to USCIS data from October 2026.

In short

• As of October 2026, 23,964 applicants are waiting in EB-2 India, 13,364 in EB-3 India, and even EB-1 India has 11,132 people in line.
• EB-2 and EB-3 are retrogressed not just for India but for the rest of the world too — 21,198 and 10,549 applicants, respectively.
• EB-2 and EB-3 India combined receive only about 4,000 green cards a year against tens of thousands in the queue — which is why the priority date moves so slowly.
• Under scenario-based estimates, the EB-2 India backlog could clear in 2–3 years, EB-3 India in roughly 2 years, and EB-1 India in about a year and a half.
• The 240 days of work allowed on H-1B after a visa expires are counted from the expiration date, not from the date the extension petition was filed.

USCIS data for October 2026: how many people are waiting for an EB-2 and EB-3 India green card

On October 26, 2026 — the week before this piece was published — the USCIS data library released two new files: the count of pending employment-based petitions as of October 5, 2026, and a comparable file as of September 3, 2026.

Each file breaks EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 into two groups: India separately and the “rest of the world.” What matters isn’t the total number of petitions, but the categories where the final action chart shows a specific date rather than the word “current” — that’s the signature of a backlog or retrogression. Within such a category, the count includes every applicant whose priority date falls between the filing date and the final action date: that’s the number of people genuinely waiting for a visa number.

The October data looks like this:

Category	Rest of the world	India
EB-1	0 (category current)	11,132
EB-2	21,198	23,964
EB-3	10,549	13,364

This data comes from the public USCIS data library for October 2026; before relying on it for a filing, check the current version of the file on the USCIS website, since the figures are updated monthly.

EB-1A for the rest of the world remains current — no backlog, no shortage of numbers there. But EB-2 and EB-3 are retrogressed not just for India but for the rest of the world too: even applicants outside India are waiting in lines of 21,198 and 10,549 people, respectively. For India, the same categories produce noticeably larger numbers — 23,964 in EB-2 and 13,364 in EB-3.

How the numbers changed from September to October, and why

For EB-1 rest of the world, the figures didn’t change at all: the category stayed current in both September and October. In EB-2 India, though, the number of pending applicants dropped by roughly 2,200 compared to the September data. The drop is even more pronounced in EB-2 rest of the world: the figure fell from 27,540 to roughly 23,964 — the queue shrank by nearly 3,500 applicants in a single month.

That decline is explained by the new visa allocation that kicked in with the start of fiscal year 2027 in October: at the start of the new year the agency received a quota of 2,800 visas, and a share of the backlogged petitions finally cleared. It’s also possible that some EB-2 applicants moved into other categories — EB-1, EB-5, or EB-1C — and formally dropped out of the count.

EB-3 tells a different story: the figures barely moved compared to the previous month, with no meaningful reduction in the queue. That suggests the new quota and category shifts mainly relieved EB-2, not EB-3.

How many visas EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 India actually get per year

Last year the total number of employment-based immigrant visas issued was around 186,000, including roughly 40,000 spillover visas — numbers that went unused by another category or country and were redistributed further down the line. The worldwide EB-2 quota is about 53,000 visas, and India’s base share of that is 37,000 once spillovers are factored in. But in practice India received fewer than 4,000 EB-2 green cards that same year: the gap between the “paper” share and actual issuance comes down to how unused numbers get redistributed within a category and across countries.

Over recent years, EB-2 India has averaged 3,600–3,900 green cards a year, EB-3 around 3,600, and EB-2 and EB-3 combined roughly 4,000 visas a year including spillovers. By comparison, EB-1 issues an average of about 9,000 visas a year — more than double EB-2 and EB-3 combined.

There’s a separate reason even the theoretically available numbers don’t clear the queue: visas issued through consulates outside the US (consular processing) barely move the needle. In one of the years examined, consulates issued only 129 employment-based visas total — a figure small enough to count as statistical noise next to the thousands of green cards processed domestically through adjustment of status.

In one of the years examined, consulates issued only 129 employment-based visas total — a figure small enough to count as statistical noise next to the thousands of green cards processed domestically through adjustment of status.

The bottom line is simple: against a queue of tens of thousands, the annual inflow of new visas for EB-2 and EB-3 India is measured in the thousands, not the tens of thousands. That ratio — not slow USCIS processing — is what determines how far the priority date actually moves in a year.

How many years it will take to clear the EB-2 and EB-3 India backlog

EB-1 India should clear its backlog in roughly a year and a half — meaning that’s how long it will take for the Final Action Date to catch up with the current Filing Date. It’s the only one of the three categories with a single, direct scenario behind the estimate.

EB-2 India is more complicated: straight-line extrapolation gives 6 years. But that calculation ignores the fact that part of the queue naturally thins out over time — some applicants move to EB-1 or EB-5, others drop out of the queue entirely. Factoring that attrition in changes the picture:

• at 22,000 visas available per year, with that figure falling roughly 20% (to 18,000), the EB-2 India backlog clears in 4 years;
• accounting for attrition — roughly 4,000 people moving into other categories and another roughly 2,000 leaving the queue entirely — the current pool of applicants shrinks to around 12,000, bringing the estimate down to 2–3 years, i.e., to the point where the Final Action Date reaches a Filing Date around January 2015.

EB-3 India looks a little better. Assuming roughly 13,000 visas a year and a 20% drop, accounting for duplicate filings, the queue holds around 11,000 people. If another roughly 1,000 move to EB-1 or EB-2 and roughly 1,000 more leave the pool, around 10,000 applicants remain — following the same logic as EB-2, the EB-3 India backlog clears in roughly 2 years.

None of these figures are an official USCIS forecast — they’re scenario-based estimates built on assumptions about visa availability and the share of applicants leaving the queue; actual numbers may differ.

Visa Bulletin forecast through the end of 2026: how far will the priority date move

A conservative forecast for the rest of 2026 looks like this:

Category	Expected priority date movement
EB-1 India	about 1 month on average
EB-2 India	2–3 weeks
EB-3 India	3 weeks to a month

These figures aren’t a flat monthly increment: most of the movement in Visa Bulletin dates happens quarterly, when quarterly number updates are published. January, April, and July are cited as examples of such months.

The forecast hasn’t changed from an earlier estimate — barring a significant shift in visa availability, the conservative pace estimate stays the same.

Visa stamping in Canada or Mexico instead of India: what to know

Interview appointments at US consulates in India can stretch out for months, sometimes years, and even scheduled appointments often get cancelled and rescheduled. If you leave the US for India without advance parole and without an already-valid visa, getting back in typically requires spending at least a couple of months in India — that’s roughly how long it takes on average to get an appointment and have the stamp issued.

That’s the appeal of getting the visa stamp not in India but in Canada or Mexico — open slots genuinely do show up on those consulates’ websites. The third country national rule applies here: an Indian citizen generally has to get the visa stamp in their home country, and the exception applies only to residents of Canada or Mexico.

Residency in this context is meant literally — permanent residence or a valid visa for that country, not simply the fact of crossing the border. A small number of people with resident status in Canada or Mexico do get appointments and stamps at consulates there. But even a successful stamping in a third country doesn’t exempt you from additional screening at the border when re-entering the US — having a visa in your passport doesn’t cancel that check out.

240 days on H-1B: what happens if the extension isn’t approved in time

If an H-1B expires before an extension is approved, you can keep working for up to 240 days past the expiration date of the prior visa — but only if the extension petition was already filed.

1. File the extension petition early. Without premium processing, review can stretch over several months; with premium processing, timelines usually run a few weeks, but right now, due to heightened scrutiny of certain employers, even premium processing can take longer than it used to — check the exact timeline in the official USCIS notice at the time of filing.
2. Count the 240 days from the expiration date of the current H-1B, not from the date the extension petition was filed.
3. If no decision arrives within 240 days, work must stop and the employee must go on unpaid leave: the company isn’t permitted to pay the employee after that deadline passes. If a denial arrives earlier than that, work stops on the day of the notice — there’s no need to wait for day 240. The rule applies only when extending the same H-1B status with the same employer in the same position; changing employers or filing a change of status triggers different rules.
4. Get written confirmation from the employer that work will stop after 240 days — this documents compliance with the rule in case questions come up later.
5. Resume work only after the extension is officially approved, not sooner. Enforcement against unauthorized work is tight enough right now that even a single week of working without valid status can become a problem.

Enforcement against unauthorized work is tight enough right now that even a single week of working without valid status can become a problem.

What to do if your H-1B extension isn’t approved in time

• File the extension petition earlyrequiredbefore the current visa expires
• Note the expiration date of the current H-1Brequiredthe 240 days are counted from this date
• Check current premium processing timelines in the USCIS noticetimelines can run longer than usual due to heightened scrutiny
• Get written confirmation from the employer that work will stop after 240 daysrequireddocuments compliance with the rule
• Stop working if no decision arrives within 240 daysrequiredgo on unpaid leave
• Stop working on the day of a denial noticerequiredif the denial arrives before day 240
• Resume work only after the extension is officially approvedrequirednot sooner

H-1B’s 60-day grace period may be eliminated: what’s known so far

After losing an H-1B job — assuming there’s no pending I-485 or other status keeping the stay lawful — a 60-day grace period applies: time to find a new employer and transfer the H-1B. You can remain in the country the whole time, but working for the new employer is only allowed once the transfer petition is approved. If 60 days pass without a new employer found, work authorization ends.

According to unconfirmed reports, a regulation that could eliminate this 60-day period is currently under discussion; the exact timeline for public comment and for the rule taking effect hasn’t been confirmed by an official source as of publication, so the status should be checked directly on the USCIS website.

For now, the 60-day grace period is still in effect, but based on available reporting, it will likely be scrapped in the coming months.

EB-1A final merits: is meeting just 3 of 10 criteria enough for approval

Many applicants stuck in EB-2 or EB-3 facing a long wait for a green card — or even for filing Form I-485 — consider switching to EB-1A or EB-1C. The EB-1A criteria are written in straightforward terms, but their evaluation has recently come under heightened scrutiny, specifically at the final stage of petition review: the final merits determination.

The legality of this stage has been contested in court for months. Earlier, a judge in Nebraska ruled against the final merits practice, finding that denying a petition on the basis of the final review alone had been challenged and was later overturned. In January, a federal judge in Nebraska ruled that USCIS had introduced this practice unlawfully. But the following month, a judge in the same district reached the opposite conclusion in a different case: according to reports, a subsequent case in the same district found the opposite and held that applying the final merits determination to EB-1A petitions was lawful — the case name itself and the details of the ruling should be checked against the official court text before relying on them.

The plaintiff in that case made two arguments: that the final merits test has no basis in federal regulations and that the authorities introduced it without following rulemaking procedure. The court rejected both arguments, finding that weighing the totality of the evidence is consistent with the statutory requirement to demonstrate a sustained claim in the claimed field.

From this, the main practical takeaway is: meeting three of EB-1A’s ten criteria on its own does not guarantee approval of the petition. At the final review stage, based on observed petition outcomes and RFEs, essentially two things matter. First, the applicant’s work has to contribute to the field of expertise itself, not just to the employer company. Second, the evidence for each criterion has to show the applicant is at the top of their field, since the formal criteria can be met by thousands of other candidates. EB-1A is a category for people with extraordinary ability, and how convincingly that standing among the best in the profession is proven is what determines the outcome of the final review.

the formal criteria can be met by thousands of other candidates

Frequently asked questions

Can I file I-485 ahead of time, before my priority date is current, so I don’t have to wait separately later

The material doesn’t address this directly, but the logic of the queue implies: I-485 can only be filed once the priority date matches the filing date chart. Before that, an applicant is counted in the EB-2 or EB-3 pending inventory and can’t file the form — and that’s exactly what these numbers reflect (23,964 for EB-2 India, 13,364 for EB-3 India as of the October data): people already waiting between the filing date and the final action date.

What happens to an H-1B if you change employers during the 240-day waiting period

The 240-day rule only applies when extending the same H-1B status with the same employer in the same position. Changing employers or filing a change of status triggers different rules — a separate calculation of timelines and conditions not covered by this rule.

Can you return to work if an H-1B extension is denied, but then you file an appeal or a new petition

Work can only resume after the extension is officially approved — not after filing an appeal or a new petition. If the denial arrives before day 240, work stops on the day of the notice — there’s no need to wait out the full period, but you also can’t resume work before a new approval comes through.

What happens to people already in the 60-day grace period if the rule is eliminated while they’re job-hunting

There’s no confirmed timeline for when the rule would take effect or how it would apply to grace periods already underway — this is unconfirmed information as of publication. For now the 60-day period is still in effect, so status should be checked directly on the USCIS website rather than assuming the elimination would apply retroactively.

If I’m a resident of Canada or Mexico but a citizen of India, do I still need to go to India for visa stamping

No — residents of Canada or Mexico are exactly who the exception to the third country national rule is for: Indian citizenship in that case doesn’t require stamping in the home country. But residency has to be documented literally — permanent residence or a valid visa for that country, not simply the fact of crossing the border.

On average, how many years will it take to clear the EB-1 India backlog compared to EB-2 and EB-3

EB-1 India should clear its backlog in roughly a year and a half — the only category with a single, direct scenario behind the estimate. EB-2 India, accounting for applicant attrition, is estimated at 2–3 years, and EB-3 India at roughly 2 years — meaning both categories are close to EB-1’s timeline if the attrition assumptions hold up.

Why did EB-2 shrink more over the month than EB-3, if the new fiscal year’s quota applies to all employment-based categories at once

The new allocation of 2,800 visas at the start of fiscal year 2027 primarily relieved EB-2: a share of backlogged petitions cleared, and some applicants shifted into EB-1, EB-5, or EB-1C, formally dropping out of the EB-2 count. EB-3 figures barely moved — meaning category shifts and the new quota affected EB-3 far less.