During the week of October 26–28, IRCC ran three Express Entry draws: PNP, the French-language category, and the transport occupations category, while no general Canadian Experience Class draw took place. After CRS changes come into effect on November 3, a pause is expected, and the next CEC draw is forecast to happen in the second half of November. The projected cutoff for it is 540–560 points.
Three draws in one week
Monday, October 26: PNP draw, 792 invitations, cutoff 761 points. Tuesday, October 27: French-language category, 5,000 invitations, cutoff 47 points. CLB 7 in French is enough to qualify for this draw, and it’s likely that invitations went precisely to those with that level.
Thursday, October 28: transport occupations category, 150 invitations, cutoff 477 points. This was the first transport draw in a long time. Truck drivers are no longer included in this category, so the pool of eligible candidates is narrower, but for those who do qualify, the result is considered favorable.
Why the CEC draw didn’t happen
A final CEC draw before the changes was expected, but IRCC didn’t run one. Category-based draws took place instead. This outlet had previously forecast that IRCC would continue the practice of category-based and CEC draws, with no separate FSW draws, since those haven’t been held in a very long time. The changes for candidates with a job offer and Canadian experience, taking effect November 3, remain targeted at people already in Canada.
When the next CEC draw might happen
CRS changes take effect next week, and IRCC has said that updating scores could take up to two weeks. So draws may pause for at least two weeks, and the next CEC draw will likely happen in the third or fourth week of November.
If IRCC keeps the invitation size at 2,500, the cutoff is expected to rise by 20–40 points, putting it in the 540–560 range. The forecast is rough: at the time of writing there’s no data on how many candidates in the pool work in high-paying occupations or have a job offer in one. PNP draws will barely be affected by the changes, since candidates with 600 points gaining an extra 20–40 points makes little real difference. Category-based draws may shift less, since they involve fewer candidates.
What candidates in the pool should do
Candidates should update their profile: check their job offer information, the currency of their Canadian experience, and the accuracy of their NOC code. If the occupation is high-paying, the NOC code must match it correctly. For two weeks starting November 3, candidates should check whether their profile score changed as expected. If it didn’t, it’s worth finding out why. A current, accurate profile in the pool means an invitation can be issued as soon as IRCC resumes draws.
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