Why Ukrainians Prop Up Poland's Pension System (ZUS)

Ukrainians are the largest group of insured foreigners in Poland’s pension fund ZUS, and their contributions effectively offset the annual decline in the number of working Poles paying into the system.

In short

• As of the end of June 2026, 901,018 Ukrainian citizens were insured with ZUS — 5.5% of all insured persons in Poland
• Over the year, the number of insured Poles fell by roughly 84,000, while the number of insured foreigners rose by 10,400
• In the first half of 2026, the state budget paid the pension system over 30 billion zlotys to cover the gap between contributions and payouts
• By 2035, Poland’s population will shrink from 37.5 to 35.6 million, and the 25–40 age group will shrink by 1.7 million
• Not a mass departure, but merely a slowdown in the inflow of new foreign workers could complicate the pension system’s position

How many Ukrainians are insured with ZUS, and what share they hold

As of the end of June 2026, 901,018 Ukrainian citizens were registered with ZUS, Poland’s social insurance fund — this is official data from the fund’s report. This figure refers specifically to insured persons, meaning those who pay taxes and contributions, not the total number of Ukrainians in Poland, which also includes non-working residents, retirees, and children who aren’t counted here.

Ukrainians make up just over 67% of all insured foreigners in Poland — in other words, two-thirds of insured foreign nationals hold Ukrainian citizenship. Among all insured persons in Poland — Poles and foreigners combined — Ukrainians account for 5.5%.

Among all insured persons in Poland — Poles and foreigners combined — Ukrainians account for 5.5%.

How foreign worker growth offsets the decline in Polish contributors

Over the year from June 2025 to June 2026, the total number of insured persons in the Polish system grew by 17,600. But this growth masks an opposite trend underneath: the number of insured Polish workers fell by roughly 84,000 over the same period, according to calculations, while the number of insured foreigners, based on calculations drawn from ZUS data, rose by approximately 10,400.

Overall, based on available estimates, roughly 100,000 more foreigners started working in Poland over the past year. It is this inflow, not Poles, that has kept the pension system afloat and even slightly increased the number of taxpayers: rough calculations suggest the lion’s share of the foreign worker growth simply goes toward covering the shortfall among Poles.

A telling detail: every year, more than 80,000 Poles stop working — retiring or leaving the labor market for other reasons. This is a stable annual trend, not a one-off dip in a single period.

every year, more than 80,000 Poles stop working — retiring or leaving the labor market for other reasons

What Poland’s pension system costs the state budget

In the first half of 2026, revenue from insurance contributions to Poland’s pension system totaled 204.5 billion zlotys, while spending on pensions and benefits — including disability and survivor benefits — reached 215.3 billion zlotys. A budget subsidy of just over 30 billion zlotys covered the gap.

Even though foreigners are now boosting the number of insured persons and taxpayers in the system, the contributions collected still aren’t enough — the state has to keep finding money to top up the fund so pensions get paid on time.

In a statement dated September 10, 2026, ZUS assessed the condition of its funds as stable: rising contributions and a stable labor market have reduced the need for a budget subsidy, freeing up funds that can be directed elsewhere.

For the insurance system, three indicators are decisive: how many people are working, what their wages are, and what contributions they pay. Simply counting insured persons isn’t enough to assess the system’s financial performance — all three factors together are what matter.

Demographic forecast: Poland’s population set to shrink through 2035

According to Eurostat projections cited in a Credit Agricole report from August 31–September 6, 2026, Poland’s population will shrink from 37.5 million to 35.6 million residents between 2025 and 2035. The 25–40 age group is shrinking separately — and it’s this group that provides the main inflow of working-age contributors to the pension system: over the same ten years, the number of people in this age bracket will drop by 1.7 million.

What matters for the pension system’s stability isn’t the country’s total population, but the number of people who work and pay contributions, and how many working years they still have ahead of them. So the claim that ZUS is stable today doesn’t settle the question: the system is being held up by an inflow of foreign contributors, and the demographic forecast shows that the number of Polish workers in this age group will shrink over the next decade.

What happens to Poland’s pensions if the inflow of Ukrainians slows down

Credit Agricole analysts view a partial return of Ukrainians to Ukraine after the war ends as a risk to Poland’s labor supply. At the same time, the report’s own authors acknowledge that the scale of such a return currently cannot be reliably assessed — it isn’t even clear when the war will end.

The total number of foreign workers in Poland, according to analysts’ estimates, will most likely keep growing, but at a slower pace. The problem is that even this slowdown in the annual inflow of new foreign workers alone could significantly complicate the pension system’s position — meaning the threat isn’t an exodus, but merely a slowdown in new growth.

the threat isn’t an exodus, but merely a slowdown in new growth

This is where today’s numbers and tomorrow’s risk meet: the growth in foreign workers already offsets the decline among other insured persons, and it is precisely the increase in foreign workers that has driven the overall growth in the number of insured persons in the system. Ukrainians are, in effect, directly funding Poland’s insurance system, and this economic contribution deserves a place in any conversation about migration.

Analysts don’t put a figure on how much the system would lose in the event of a mass departure of Ukrainians — that’s currently impossible to calculate. That’s exactly why claims about ZUS’s stability today don’t settle the matter: the system is being held up by foreigners’ willingness to keep staying in Poland, not by any guarantee that they will.

Frequently asked questions

Do Ukrainians working in Poland informally get counted in this ZUS statistic at all

No. The ZUS report only counts officially insured persons — those who pay contributions through an employer or as self-employed. Ukrainians working without formal registration aren’t part of the 901,018 figure, so the actual number of Ukrainians working in Poland may be higher than the official insured count.

Could other foreign nationals, aside from Ukrainians, offset a possible slowdown in the inflow of Ukrainian workers

The forecast refers to the total number of foreign workers in Poland, which, according to analysts’ estimates, will keep growing, albeit more slowly. But since Ukrainians make up over two-thirds of all insured foreigners, it’s their trend specifically that determines whether the current inflow level can be maintained.