Express Entry draws next week: what invitations to expect before the November 3 changes

A round of Express Entry is expected in the week starting late October, but IRCC may cancel it due to the new ranking pool that takes effect on November 3. If the draws do happen, expect the standard cycle: a draw for provincial nominees (PNP), a draw for candidates in general (CC), and a category-based selection round — healthcare or French language.

Will there be draws next week

IRCC has two options. First, the agency may pause draws until the new candidate scoring system is implemented, which will start working on November 3. This is the most likely scenario, because rolling out large systems takes time, and bugs may be found in the code.

The second option is that IRCC will continue the usual draw cycle. If that happens, the week will start with a PNP draw, where invitations go to candidates with high scores for provincial nominations. The minimum CRS score will be around 600 points.

What cut-offs to expect in the draws

If a draw for candidates in general (CC draw) takes place, the cut-off depends on the number of invitations. With 2,500 invitations, the minimum CRS score will stay around 518 points. With 2,000 invitations, the cut-off could drop by 1–2 points.

After that, a category-based selection is expected. IRCC may choose a draw among healthcare workers or francophones. It is impossible to predict exactly which option the agency will settle on, but French language was chosen in the last cycle, so another category may be selected this time.

What will happen after November 3

After the new ranking pool is introduced, cut-offs are expected to rise by 20–40 points. The new system rewards candidates working in high-paying occupations and holding a confirmed job offer without a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) requirement.

This means a person working in a high-paying occupation, such as an engineer or nurse, will have an advantage over a candidate with the same qualifications but working in a low-paying position. For a few weeks in November, IRCC may not hold any draws while system bugs are being fixed.

Who benefits from the new system

Although most candidates will get a score boost from the new rules, the real winners are those with high salaries or a current job offer. A person who received a 40-point boost may simply keep their place in line for the published cut-off if others received a similar increase.

The new ranking distinguishes candidates by pay level: two profiles with the same baseline CRS scores will no longer be assessed equally. But there is a risk: points for a job offer without an LMIA are awarded without prior verification, which could lead to fraud.