In Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state elections, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party was polling at 44% of votes by Sunday evening according to preliminary data, significantly outpacing the CDU (17%). The final results will be known by Monday or Tuesday, but it’s already clear: even victory at the state level does not give the AfD the authority to change federal migration policy, asylum rights, or EU membership.

Preliminary Election Results

According to German television by 21:08 on Sunday, the AfD party was polling at 44% of votes. Other parties distributed as follows: CDU — 17%, The Left — 8%, SPD — 9%, FDP — 2%, Greens — 8%, BSW — 5%.

These are not yet final tallies — the final figures are expected by Monday, or Tuesday at the latest.

Why State Victory Doesn’t Translate to Federal Power

Svend Loening, a political scientist at the University of Jena, explained in an interview with Deutsche Welle the limits of the AfD’s powers even after winning at the state level. A state government cannot revoke the right to asylum, change citizenship rules, or independently strengthen state border controls — these are exclusively federal competencies.

The AfD can partially influence deportations and the establishment of centralized reception centers for asylum seekers, since these issues fall partially under state jurisdiction. However, even this is complicated by the lack of documents among migrants or by countries of origin refusing to accept their citizens.

Education: The Most Room for Change

According to Loening’s assessment, 27 out of 35 educational points in the AfD’s program could legally be implemented. The party proposes dedicating more attention to the history of the German Empire, expanding Russian language instruction, and ending funding for the “Schools Without Racism” program.

However, the idea of separate education for refugee children could conflict with constitutional anti-discrimination provisions.

Culture, Police, and Broadcasting

The AfD wants to change how cultural funding is distributed: more money for military monuments, less for research into colonial and Nazi history. The party also advocates for banning rainbow flags in schools and hormone therapy for children and adolescents.

As for police and prosecution, the state government has real levers: the interior minister can set police priorities and the state constitutional protection authority’s agenda, and state authorities can influence prosecutorial personnel decisions through the appointment of the state prosecutor. However, judges cannot be changed — they are appointed for life.

The AfD also wants to terminate the public broadcasting contract and cancel mandatory broadcasting fees, but doing so at a single state level is extremely difficult due to federal constitutional requirements and treaties between states.

What the AfD Definitely Cannot Do

Germany’s exit from the EU, NATO, or the Schengen Zone, abandoning the euro, or unilaterally rewriting federal migration law are all beyond the party’s authority even after winning in Saxony-Anhalt.

As one German journalist noted, the actual scope of changes will depend on what approach the party itself chooses — a softer or harder line in implementing its program at the state level.