Royal Bank of Canada published a report criticizing the country’s immigration strategy in effect since 2022. The study points to a loss of competitive advantages, policy instability, and a decline in public confidence in immigration for the first time in 20 years. Experts recommend returning Express Entry to a point-based system without subcategories and giving provinces greater control over regional needs.

What Happened to Immigration Policy

According to the RBC report, the immigration strategy Canada has been pursuing since 2015 gradually lost effectiveness. The period from 2022 to the present has been marked by a sharp population spike — a so-called demographic shock — and a series of abrupt policy changes. These factors undermined public confidence in immigration. For the first time in two decades, public opinion in Canada toward immigration has become negative.

The report is based on ten years of data and contains a careful analysis of the differences between immigration policy before and after the pandemic. RBC experts identified two main issues: reduced focus on applicants’ professional skills and experience, and a lack of transparency and real data on outcomes.

Why Canada Needs Immigration Despite Criticism

Despite the decline in public confidence, immigration remains critically important for the country’s future. Without immigration, Canada’s population could be cut in half by the end of the century. This is explained by an aging population and demographic crisis: mortality among the local population exceeds birth rates among citizens and permanent residents.

This disproportion creates a double problem. First, the number of working-age people able to work and pay taxes decreases. Second, tax revenues that fund the healthcare system, pensions, and infrastructure decline. Canada aims to increase its population to 100 million people by 2100, and this requires attracting immigrants.

Problems with Express Entry and Subcategories

Express Entry, Canada’s flagship federal immigration system, is not working as originally intended. The problem lies in the introduction of subcategories — French-language applicants, STEM specialists, transport workers, and other skilled categories.

These subcategories allow candidates with lower scores to get ahead of those who scored higher. Moreover, they undermine the original purpose of the system, which should select applicants with the highest earning potential. The study showed that people invited through Express Entry without subcategories earn 30% more after three years compared to those who came through provincial programs (PNP).

The problem is complicated by the fact that the federal government cannot focus Express Entry on regional needs. IRCC has already stated that it cannot create programs tied to specific regions — that is the purview of provinces and territories. However, the introduction of subcategories has turned the federal system into a tool that attempts to solve regional problems instead of selecting the strongest candidates.

Duplication of Provincial Programs

Canada has over 80 provincial streams of sponsorship programs (PNP), and many of them duplicate each other. This makes the system unnecessarily complex and inefficient. Applicants often face a confusing landscape of programs, which complicates the application process.

According to the report’s authors, provinces should consolidate their programs and independently determine what specialists they need based on analysis of the local labor market and NOC codes. The federal government, in turn, should focus on making Express Entry function as a pure points-based selection system.

Recommendations for Restoring Competitiveness

RBC proposes three key measures to restore Canada’s immigration advantage. The first is to stabilize population growth rates over a long period. If Canada decides to maintain growth at 1% per year, it should stick to that target, rather than making sharp spikes that lead to demographic shocks.

The second measure is to return Express Entry to a points-based system without subcategories. This will allow for the selection of the most qualified workers regardless of category, and will give provinces and territories the freedom to determine regional needs.

The third measure is to use a two-stage strategy: first attract highly motivated temporary workers through high-skilled programs, then account for Canadian experience when selecting through Express Entry. However, the most critical element is improving data transparency. IRCC should publish real outcome data, including information on immigrant departures and earnings, so that both policymakers and applicants can make informed decisions.